Lockdown State vs. Free State Part I: Mobility

Self-Protection vs. Government Mandate

This is part one of a series of articles I will be publishing that will compare 2 states’ data during the pandemic.

Below is a chart that shows two separate states social mobility from March 2020 though December 2020 as a % change from pre-Covid baseline. This is from Google’s database of GPS data from mobile devices, and reflects a measure of how frequently people left their homes.

One was a state that implemented “Stay at home” orders, which were repeatedly extended. The other state implemented a similar order, which was lifted after a month and then never extended. One state closed all public schools for the entirety of Fall 2020. The other state mandated that school districts open for in person learning. In one of these states, individuals were mandated to stop working, keep their children home, and were dictated to which risks they were “allowed” to take. In the other state, individuals had the choice as to what risks they wanted to take- if they wanted to work, bring their children to school, attend a worship service, etc. “Non-essential” workers in retail, hospitality, and food service in one state were told to stay home. In the other state, all work was treated as essential.

Which one is which? How is it that the free state shows such a reduction in individual mobility? What was making them stay home more frequently?

Individuals make risk calculations every day. When faced with the risk of exposure, they decide for themselves whether or not the risks are worth it.

What we are looking at in the chart above is the real-life counterfactual. The state without the policy response shows us what did happen without the intervention. It played out in real time and allowed us to see just how much of a difference the policy interventions made.

Source: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

In Part II, I will reveal which state is which, and analyze a new data set from each.